I used to think that basically, technically, the chance/probabilty of anything is just 50/50 or 50%, and that it was just nonsensical to have to calculate probabilities using math. For example,
What is the chance that it rains tomorrow? Either it rains, or it does not rain!
What is the probabiliy of me rolling a six on a die? Either I roll six, or I don’t!
For a long time I had this mindset, and once even consulted with ChatGPT about it but it was no use. I lived with this idea until just recently, I decided to just google it (not sure why I hadn’t done that before) and found this Quora post that explained it quite well.
Aside from the fact that considering everything just 50/50 chance as either ‘xyz’ happens, or it does not, is not very useful or practical, it seemed that I overlooked a major detail.
Sure, either it rains tomorrow, or it does not. But both of these outcomes do not have equal probability of occurring. There are many factors influencing whether it rains tomorrow; the probability of it is not 50%, it depends on various factors.
Basically, the likelihood of one of the outcomes is way greater than the other outcome.
Due to my ignorance, I overlooked this crucial aspect.
In conclusion, my thinking is just stupid.
This article was quite short than I had hoped it would be, but I guess that’s fine for my first time publishing on the internet.